How did this market resolve?

It resolved Yes on Jul 1, 2026 on Polymarket. Event family: Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 1?

Did the prediction market see it coming?

Yes — prediction markets priced Yes as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. National Weather Service is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 1? — Resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 1?

Yes

Final answerResolved Jul 1, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in Yes just before settlement.

Outcome: Yes on Jul 1, 2026. Event family: Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 1? $11.8K traded before settlement. Question: Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 1?

ResolvedJul 1, 2026

Volume$11.8K

Archive coverageCurve + book

Movement

Consensus lock into resolution

The market priced Yes as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 100.0¢ALL+0.2%

Last observed Yes

99.95% (99.95¢)

Settled result

Yes

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in Yes just before settlement.

Context

Official observation context

The archived market shows broad crowd agreement into settlement rather than a late information shock. $11.8K traded before settlement, so the useful context is the resolved outcome, official source path, and related market family.

National Weather Servicesource linked

Official U.S. forecast and weather-observation source for weather-resolution context.

Open weather source

Crowd state

ConsensusThe market was already one-sided before settlement, so absence of a spike is part of the record.

Public anchor

National Weather ServiceOfficial U.S. forecast and weather-observation source for weather-resolution context.

Resolved

Jul 1, 2026Yes settlement with $11.8K traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $83.6K closing liquidity.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 1, 2026 at 9:55 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price99.75% (99.75¢)Observed

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