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Resolved answer·ITF Monastir: Mathys Picard vs Roger Pascual Ferra·#2713638

Picard vs. Ferra: Match O/U 23.5

Yes
Final answerResolved Jun 28, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in Yes just before settlement.

Outcome: Yes on Jun 28, 2026. Event family: ITF Monastir: Mathys Picard vs Roger Pascual Ferra. $15 traded before settlement. Question: Picard vs. Ferra: Match O/U 23.5.

ResolvedJun 28, 2026
Volume$15
Archive coverageCurve + book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Picard vs. Ferra: Match O/U 23.5
Market imageYes
Last observed Yes99.95% (99.95¢)
01Section 01 of 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 29% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 71-point move.

Yes 100.0¢ALL+101.9%
Yes100.0¢No0.0¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢6/286/286/28Lowest pointSharp moveSettled

Last observed Yes

99.95% (99.95¢)

Settled result

Yes

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in Yes just before settlement.

02Section 02 of 04Context

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Jun 28, 2026Yes settlement with $15 traded before close.
Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $0 closing liquidity.

Spike signal
71 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
03Section 03 of 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

June 28, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price49.5% (49.5¢)Observed
04Section 04 of 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

ITF Monastir: Mathys Picard vs Roger Pascual Ferra
Same contract familyYes

ITF Monastir: Mathys Picard vs Roger Pascual Ferra

ITF Monastir: Mathys Picard vs Roger Pascual Ferra · $29.4K traded · Jun 28, 2026

Open resolved page
Same contract familyNo

Set Handicap: Ferra (-1.5) vs Picard (+1.5)

ITF Monastir: Mathys Picard vs Roger Pascual Ferra · $18 traded · Jun 28, 2026

Open resolved page
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
$0Last archived liquidity level before settlement.
Curve
3 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle49.5% (49.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle99.95% (99.95¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price99.95% (99.95¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score50 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing liquidity$0ObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
Same contract familyYes

Picard vs. Ferra: Match O/U 22.5

ITF Monastir: Mathys Picard vs Roger Pascual Ferra · $15 traded · Jun 28, 2026

Open resolved page
Same contract familyNo

Picard vs. Ferra: Match O/U 21.5

ITF Monastir: Mathys Picard vs Roger Pascual Ferra · $15 traded · Jun 28, 2026

Open resolved page
Same contract familyNo

Mathys Picard vs. Roger Pascual Ferra: Total Sets O/U 2.5

ITF Monastir: Mathys Picard vs Roger Pascual Ferra · $3 traded · Jun 28, 2026

Open resolved page
Same contract familyYes

ITF Men Monastir: Completed Match: Mathys Picard vs Roger Pascual Ferra

ITF Monastir: Mathys Picard vs Roger Pascual Ferra · $0 traded · Jun 28, 2026

Open resolved page
Same topic: SportsNo

Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

F1 Drivers Champion · $29.7M traded · Nov 10, 2025

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive