Movement
How opinion moved into resolution
The market sat near 65.5% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 66-point move.
Last observed Yes
47.5% (47.5¢)
Settled result
No
How accurate was the crowd? A close one — the market was only 52.5% confident in No at the close.
Venues
Venues
Polymarket and Kalshi coverage
Polymarket remains the settlement source for this page. Kalshi appears here only where Vanga has a high-confidence comparable market.
ALKA
Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized
Context
Public context
The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.
Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Open marketThe archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.
Evidence
What the archive still preserves
This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.
Source
Supabase primary
Last refreshed
June 27, 2026 at 6:00 PM UTC
State
Primary · live · primary
Ranking logic
/research/methodologyResolution source
Polymarket settlement record
Data caveat
Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision
Continue
Continue through the resolved archive
