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Resolved answer·Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yexin Ma vs Erika Andreeva·#2641921

Ma vs. Andreeva: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5

No
Final answerResolved Jun 23, 2026

The crowd called it — 73.5% confident in No just before settlement.

Outcome: No on Jun 23, 2026. Event family: Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yexin Ma vs Erika Andreeva. $105 traded before settlement. Question: Ma vs. Andreeva: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5.

ResolvedJun 23, 2026
Volume$105
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Ma vs. Andreeva: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes26.5% (26.5¢)
01Section 01 of 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 59% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 59-point move.

Yes 26.5¢ALL-47.0%
23¢33¢43¢53¢63¢6/226/236/236/23Peak convictionSharp moveSettled

Last observed Yes

26.5% (26.5¢)

Settled result

No

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 73.5% confident in No just before settlement.

02Section 02 of 04Context

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Jun 23, 2026No settlement with $105 traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal
32 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
03Section 03 of 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

June 23, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price50% (50¢)Observed
04Section 04 of 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

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Same entity: WimbledonNo

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Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
4 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle50% (50¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle26.5% (26.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price26.5% (26.5¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty73.5%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score24 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
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