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Resolved answer·Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild·#2641657

Miguel vs. Wild: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5

No
Final answerResolved Jun 25, 2026

A surprise — the market leaned against No (37% confidence) right before it settled.

Outcome: No on Jun 25, 2026. Event family: Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild. $0 traded before settlement. Question: Miguel vs. Wild: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5.

ResolvedJun 25, 2026
Volume$0
Archive coverageCurve + book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Miguel vs. Wild: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes63% (63¢)
01Section 01 of 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 65% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 65-point move.

Yes 63.0¢ALL+26.0%
Yes63.0¢No37.0¢
30¢40¢50¢60¢70¢6/226/236/236/236/246/246/246/246/256/256/25Peak convictionSharp moveSettled

Last observed Yes

63% (63¢)

Settled result

No

How accurate was the crowd? A surprise — the market leaned against No (37% confidence) right before it settled.

02Section 02 of 04Context

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Jun 25, 2026No settlement with $0 traded before close.
Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $0 closing liquidity.

03Section 03 of 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

June 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price50% (50¢)Observed
04Section 04 of 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

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Spike signal
31 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
$0Last archived liquidity level before settlement.
Curve
12 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle63% (63¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
Last observed price63% (63¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty63%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing liquidity$0ObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
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