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Resolved answer·Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Aziz Dougaz vs Rei Sakamoto·#2641345

Set 1 Winner: Dougaz vs Sakamoto

No
Final answerResolved Jun 24, 2026

A close one — the market was only 60% confident in No at the close.

Outcome: No on Jun 24, 2026. Event family: Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Aziz Dougaz vs Rei Sakamoto. $152 traded before settlement. Question: Set 1 Winner: Dougaz vs Sakamoto.

ResolvedJun 24, 2026
Volume$152
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Set 1 Winner: Dougaz vs Sakamoto
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes40% (40¢)
01Section 01 of 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 63% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 63-point move.

Yes 40.0¢ALL-20.0%
Yes40.0¢No60.0¢
34¢42¢50¢58¢66¢6/226/236/236/236/236/246/246/24Peak convictionSharp moveSettled

Last observed Yes

40% (40¢)

Settled result

No

How accurate was the crowd? A close one — the market was only 60% confident in No at the close.

02Section 02 of 04Context

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Jun 24, 2026No settlement with $152 traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal
26 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
03Section 03 of 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

June 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price50% (50¢)Observed
04Section 04 of 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

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Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
8 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle37.5% (37.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
Last observed price40% (40¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty60%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score3 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
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