How did this market resolve?

It resolved Yes on Jun 20, 2026 on Polymarket. Event family: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees.

Did the prediction market see it coming?

Yes — prediction markets priced Yes as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) — Resolved market

Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)

Yes

Final answerResolved Jun 20, 2026

A surprise — the market leaned against Yes (8.5% confidence) right before it settled.

Outcome: Yes on Jun 20, 2026. Event family: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees. $16.7K traded before settlement. Question: Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5).

ResolvedJun 20, 2026

Volume$16.7K

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market priced Yes as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 8.5¢ALL-41.4%

Yes8.5¢No91.5¢

Last observed Yes

8.5% (8.5¢)

Settled result

Yes

How accurate was the crowd? A surprise — the market leaned against Yes (8.5% confidence) right before it settled.

Context

Public context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jun 20, 2026Yes settlement with $16.7K traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

June 20, 2026 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price14.5% (14.5¢)Observed

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.