Movement
How opinion moved into resolution
A full price path was not preserved for this market, but the settlement record is firm: it resolved No, with $5 traded before close.
Archive movement view
Observed checkpointsStored checkpoints still sketch the close
This market no longer has a full preserved curve, but the archive still keeps the last meaningful checkpoints into settlement.
Final outcome
No
Resolved Jun 16, 2026
Closing spread
19¢
Settlement-adjacent bid-ask quality
Source anchor
Original Polymarket market
Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
First archived
9.5%
Earliest preserved observation
24h before
9.5%
Stored checkpoint one day before settlement
1h before
9.5%
Stored checkpoint one hour before settlement
Last observed
9.5%
Closest archived price before settlement
Settled
0%
Final recorded outcome: No
How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 90.5% confident in No just before settlement.
Context
Schedule and result context
The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.
Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Open marketThe archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 19¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.
Evidence
What the archive still preserves
This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.
Source
Supabase primary
Last refreshed
June 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC
State
Primary · live · primary
Ranking logic
/research/methodologyResolution source
Polymarket settlement record
Data caveat
Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision
Continue
Continue through the resolved archive
