How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Nov 7, 2024 on Polymarket. Event family: Michigan Senate Election Winner.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — Will a Republican win Michigan US Senate Election? (Nov 7, 2024)

Will a Republican win Michigan US Senate Election?

Final answerResolved Nov 7, 2024

The crowd called it — 99.9% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will a Republican win Michigan US Senate Election?” resolved No on Nov 7, 2024, after $684.1K traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Michigan Senate Election Winner event family.

ResolvedNov 7, 2024

Volume$684.1K

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

Large downward reprice

The market sat near 47.5% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 48-point move.

Large downward reprice

The archived price moved 47 points between the stored anchor and settlement.

Anchor price

47.5% (47.5¢)

Saved surprise score

Settled No

0% (0¢)

Final Yes price

Swing

47 pts

Yes probability

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.6%

Last observed Yes

0.1% (0.1¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics78.5%-7.0%$339.7KTrade on Polyguana →Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending in Politics2.35%0.0%$278.5KTrade on Polyguana →Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Trending in Politics6.85%+1.3%$238.7KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Headline and statement context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

RepricedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Nov 7, 2024No settlement with $684.1K traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

November 7, 2024 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price22.5% (22.5¢)Observed

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.