How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Nov 6, 2024 on Polymarket. Event family: Wyoming Presidential Election Winner.

Did the prediction market see it coming?

Yes — prediction markets priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. National Archives 2024 Electoral College results is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — Will a Democrat win Wyoming Presidential Election? (Nov 6, 2024)

Will a Democrat win Wyoming Presidential Election?

Final answerResolved Nov 6, 2024

The crowd called it — 99.7% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will a Democrat win Wyoming Presidential Election?” resolved No on Nov 6, 2024, after $427.2K traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Wyoming Presidential Election Winner event family.

ResolvedNov 6, 2024

Volume$427.2K

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

Consensus lock into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 0.3¢ALL-60.0%

Last observed Yes

0.3% (0.3¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending in Politics2.15%-0.1%$1.1MTrade on Polyguana →Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending in Politics2.05%0.0%$1.0MTrade on Polyguana →Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics80.5%-3.0%$646.0KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Headline and statement context

The archived market shows broad crowd agreement into settlement rather than a late information shock. $427.2K traded before settlement, so the useful context is the resolved outcome, official source path, and related market family.

National Archives 2024 Electoral College resultssource linked

Official National Archives Electoral College result page for the 2024 presidential election.

Open official results

Crowd state

ConsensusThe market was already one-sided before settlement, so absence of a spike is part of the record.

Public anchor

National Archives 2024 Electoral College resultsOfficial National Archives Electoral College result page for the 2024 presidential election.

Resolved

Nov 6, 2024No settlement with $427.2K traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.6¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

November 6, 2024 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price0.75% (0.75¢)Observed

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