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Resolved answer·World Cup: Worst-Placed UEFA Nation·#2448659

Will Czechia be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes
Final answerResolved Jun 27, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in Yes just before settlement.

Outcome: Yes on Jun 27, 2026. Event family: World Cup: Worst-Placed UEFA Nation. $1.1K traded before settlement. Question: Will Czechia be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ResolvedJun 27, 2026
Volume$1.1K
Archive coverageCurve + book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Market imageYes
Last observed Yes99.95% (99.95¢)
01Section 01 of 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 11% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 89-point move.

Yes 100.0¢ALL+101.9%
6¢30¢53¢76¢100¢6/66/96/136/166/196/226/256/27Lowest pointSharp moveSettled

Last observed Yes

99.95% (99.95¢)

Settled result

Yes

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in Yes just before settlement.

02Section 02 of 04Context

Context

Public context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Jun 27, 2026Yes settlement with $1.1K traded before close.
Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $0 closing liquidity.

03Section 03 of 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

June 27, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price49.5% (49.5¢)Observed
04Section 04 of 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Same entity: World CupYes

Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

World Cup Winner · $96.1M traded · Jul 1, 2026

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Same entity: World CupNo

Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

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Same entity: World Cup
Spike signal
89 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
$0Last archived liquidity level before settlement.
Curve
36 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle99.45% (99.45¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle99.95% (99.95¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price99.95% (99.95¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score1 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing liquidity$0ObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
No

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Same entity: World CupNo

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

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Browse the full resolved archive