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Resolved answer· World Cup: Group I Last Place·#2445186

Will Senegal finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

No
Final answerResolved Jun 26, 2026

The crowd called it — 92.7% confident in No just before settlement.

Outcome: No on Jun 26, 2026. Event family: World Cup: Group I Last Place. $7.7K traded before settlement. Question: Will Senegal finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

ResolvedJun 26, 2026
Volume$7.7K
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes7.3% (7.3¢)
01Section 01 of 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 45% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 45-point move.

Yes 7.3¢ALL-83.8%
2¢14¢26¢38¢50¢6/56/96/126/166/196/226/266/26Peak convictionSharp moveSettled

Last observed Yes

7.3% (7.3¢)

Settled result

No

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 92.7% confident in No just before settlement.

02Section 02 of 04Context

Context

Public context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Jun 26, 2026No settlement with $7.7K traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

03Section 03 of 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

June 26, 2026 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price45% (45¢)Observed
04Section 04 of 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Same entity: World CupYes

Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

World Cup Winner · $96.1M traded · Jul 1, 2026

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Same entity: World CupNo

Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

World Cup Winner · $96.9M traded · Jul 1, 2026

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Same entity: World Cup
Spike signal
39 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
36 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle6.5% (6.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
Last observed price7.3% (7.3¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty92.7%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score1 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
No

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World Cup Winner · $95.8M traded · Jun 29, 2026

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Same entity: World CupNo

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World Cup Winner · $107.5M traded · Jun 28, 2026

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Browse the full resolved archive