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Resolved answer·Birmingham: James McCabe vs Kamil Majchrzak·#2414887

McCabe vs. Majchrzak: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5

Yes
Final answerResolved Jun 3, 2026

The crowd called it — 82% confident in Yes just before settlement.

Outcome: Yes on Jun 3, 2026. Event family: Birmingham: James McCabe vs Kamil Majchrzak. $256 traded before settlement. Question: McCabe vs. Majchrzak: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5.

ResolvedJun 3, 2026
Volume$256
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
McCabe vs. Majchrzak: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
Market imageYes
Last observed Yes82% (82¢)
01Section 01 of 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 50% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 50-point move.

Yes 82.0¢ALL+64.0%
46¢56¢67¢77¢87¢6/26/26/26/36/36/3Lowest pointSharp moveSettled

Last observed Yes

82% (82¢)

Settled result

Yes

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 82% confident in Yes just before settlement.

02Section 02 of 04Context

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Jun 3, 2026Yes settlement with $256 traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal
33 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
03Section 03 of 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

June 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price50% (50¢)Observed
04Section 04 of 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Will LeBron James be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Same entity: JamesNo

Will LeBron James be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Time 2025 Person of the Year · $10.5M traded · Dec 16, 2025

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Same entity: JamesNo

Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? · $2.8M traded · Mar 4, 2026

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Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
6 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle82% (82¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle82% (82¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price82% (82¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty82%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
Same entity: JamesNo

Will LeBron James win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

NBA MVP · $7.3M traded · Apr 20, 2026

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Same entity: JamesNo

Will LeBron James win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?

NBA MVP · $2.7M traded · Apr 21, 2025

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Same entity: JamesNo

Will LeBron James lead the NBA in scoring?

NBA Scoring Leader · $1.4M traded · Apr 14, 2025

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Same topic: SportsNo

Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

F1 Drivers Champion · $29.7M traded · Nov 10, 2025

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Same topic: SportsNo

Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?

Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua · $26.3M traded · Dec 20, 2025

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Browse the full resolved archive