Movement
Consensus lock into resolution
A full price path was not preserved for this market, but the settlement record is firm: it resolved Yes, with $35 traded before close.
Archive movement view
Observed checkpointsStored checkpoints still sketch the close
This market no longer has a full preserved curve, but the archive still keeps the last meaningful checkpoints into settlement.
Final outcome
Yes
Resolved May 17, 2026
Closing spread
0.1¢
Settlement-adjacent bid-ask quality
Source anchor
Original Polymarket market
Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
First archived
99.55%
Earliest preserved observation
24h before
99.55%
Stored checkpoint one day before settlement
1h before
99.55%
Stored checkpoint one hour before settlement
Last observed
99.55%
Closest archived price before settlement
Settled
100%
Final recorded outcome: Yes
How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 99.55% confident in Yes just before settlement.
Context
Public context
The archived market shows broad crowd agreement into settlement rather than a late information shock. $35 traded before settlement, so the useful context is the resolved outcome, official source path, and related market family.
Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Open marketThe archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.
Evidence
What the archive still preserves
This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.
Source
Supabase primary
Last refreshed
May 17, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC
State
Primary · live · primary
Ranking logic
/research/methodologyResolution source
Polymarket settlement record
Data caveat
Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision
Continue
Continue through the resolved archive
