Movement
How opinion moved into resolution
The market sat near 83.5% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 84-point move.
Last observed Yes
83.5% (83.5¢)
Settled result
No
How accurate was the crowd? A surprise — the market leaned against No (16.5% confidence) right before it settled.
Context
Public context
The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.
Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Open marketThe archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.
Evidence
What the archive still preserves
This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.
Source
Supabase primary
Last refreshed
May 12, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC
State
Primary · live · primary
Ranking logic
/research/methodologyResolution source
Polymarket settlement record
Data caveat
Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision
Continue
Continue through the resolved archive
