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ArchiveThis prediction market resolved Mar 31, 2026 on Polymarket.See where it's trading now ↓
Resolved answer·Czechia vs. Denmark·#1743561

Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31?

No
Final answerResolved Mar 31, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31?” resolved No on Mar 31, 2026, after $1.1M traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Czechia vs. Denmark event family.

ResolvedMar 31, 2026
Volume$1.1M
Archive coverageCurve + book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31?
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes0.05% (0.05¢)
01 / 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 48.5% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 49-point move.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.9%
0¢13¢27¢40¢54¢3/283/303/313/31Peak convictionSharp moveSettled

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

No

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending now2.25%0.0%$273.7KTrade on Polyguana →Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Trending now7.55%+0.2%$248.3KTrade on Polyguana →Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending now85.5%+3.0%$242.2KTrade on Polyguana →
02 / 04Context

Context

Public context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Mar 31, 2026No settlement with $1.1M traded before close.
Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $537.4K closing liquidity.

03 / 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

March 31, 2026 at 11:40 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price47.5% (47.5¢)Observed
04 / 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Same entity: CzechiaNo

Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

World Cup Winner · $57.5M traded · Jun 25, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: CzechiaNo

Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026?

Eurovision Winner 2026 · $3.5M traded · May 17, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: Czechia
Spike signal
48 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
$537.4KLast archived liquidity level before settlement.
Curve
4 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle48.5% (48.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score48 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing liquidity$537.4KObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
No

Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?

Czechia vs. South Africa · $23.9M traded · Jun 18, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: CzechiaNo

Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025?

Eurovision Winner 2025 · $1.4M traded · May 16, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: CzechiaYes

Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?

Czechia vs. Mexico · $12.5M traded · Jun 25, 2026

Open resolved page
Same topic: SoccerNo

Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

World Cup Winner · $132.8M traded · Jul 12, 2026

Open resolved page
Same topic: SoccerNo

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

World Cup Winner · $137.3M traded · Jul 12, 2026

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive