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ArchiveThis prediction market resolved Mar 28, 2026 on Polymarket.
Resolved answer·Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?·#1709468

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?

Yes
Final answerResolved Mar 28, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in Yes just before settlement.

“Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?” resolved Yes on Mar 28, 2026, after $2.0M traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March? event family.

ResolvedMar 28, 2026
Volume$2.0M
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?
Market imageYes
Last observed Yes99.95% (99.95¢)
01 / 04Movement

Movement

Large upward reprice

The market sat near 57% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 43-point move.

Large upward reprice

The archived price moved 43 points between the stored anchor and settlement.

Lowest Yes

57% (57¢)

Curve low

Settled Yes

100% (100¢)

Final Yes price

Swing

43 pts

Yes probability

Yes 100.0¢ALL+75.4%
52¢64¢76¢88¢100¢3/253/273/28Lowest pointSharp moveSettled

Last observed Yes

99.95% (99.95¢)

Settled result

Yes

02 / 04Context

Context

Headline and statement context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
RepricedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Mar 28, 2026Yes settlement with $2.0M traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

03 / 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

March 28, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price57% (57¢)Observed
04 / 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Same eventYes

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March? · $16.6M traded · Mar 31, 2026

Open resolved page
Same eventNo

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March? · $12.5M traded · Apr 1, 2026

Open resolved page
Spike signal
43 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
3 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle70.5% (70.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle99.95% (99.95¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price99.95% (99.95¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score29 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
Same eventNo

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March? · $9.5M traded · Apr 1, 2026

Open resolved page
Same eventNo

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March? · $8.0M traded · Apr 1, 2026

Open resolved page
Same eventNo

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March? · $8.0M traded · Apr 1, 2026

Open resolved page
Same eventNo

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March? · $6.7M traded · Apr 1, 2026

Open resolved page
Same eventNo

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March? · $5.0M traded · Apr 1, 2026

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive