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Resolved answer·UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card)·#1527763

O/U 3.5 Rounds

No
Final answerResolved Mar 29, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

Outcome: No on Mar 29, 2026. Event family: UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card). $40.0K traded before settlement. Question: O/U 3.5 Rounds.

ResolvedMar 29, 2026
Volume$40.0K
Archive coverageCurve + book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
O/U 3.5 Rounds
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes0.05% (0.05¢)
01Section 01 of 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 51% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 51-point move.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.9%
0¢14¢28¢42¢56¢3/273/283/293/29Peak convictionSharp moveSettled

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

No

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

02Section 02 of 04Context

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Mar 29, 2026No settlement with $40.0K traded before close.
Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $236.4K closing liquidity.

Spike signal
51 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
03Section 03 of 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

March 29, 2026 at 5:20 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price51% (51¢)Observed
04Section 04 of 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card)
Same contract familyNo

UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card)

UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card) · $2.1M traded · Mar 29, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: IsraelYes

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...? · $48.7M traded · Apr 25, 2026

Open resolved page
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
$236.4KLast archived liquidity level before settlement.
Curve
4 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle51% (51¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score51 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing liquidity$236.4KObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
Same entity: IsraelYes

Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?

Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? · $51.8M traded · Jul 3, 2025

Open resolved page
Same entity: IsraelYes

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? · $40.1M traded · Dec 5, 2024

Open resolved page
Same entity: IsraelYes

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by...? · $20.9M traded · May 1, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: IsraelYes

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Israel military action against Iraq before November? · $27.8M traded · Oct 30, 2024

Open resolved page
Same entity: IsraelYes

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...? · $17.5M traded · Apr 25, 2026

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive