Movement
Consensus lock into resolution
The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.
Last observed Yes
0.05% (0.05¢)
Settled result
No
How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.
Context
FOMC consensus context
This was a policy-meeting consensus market: traders had already priced No as the dominant public expectation before the FOMC result. Federal Reserve FOMC calendar is the right external anchor, while the archived curve shows whether the crowd ever seriously doubted the outcome.
Official policy-meeting calendar and statement archive for rate-decision markets.
Open Fed sourceThe archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $1.4M closing liquidity.
Evidence
What the archive still preserves
This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.
Source
Supabase primary
Last refreshed
May 14, 2026 at 12:10 AM UTC
State
Primary · live · primary
Ranking logic
/research/methodologyResolution source
Polymarket settlement record
Data caveat
Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision
Continue
Continue through the resolved archive