How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Mar 9, 2026 on Polymarket. Event family: Next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Did the prediction market see it coming?

Yes — prediction markets priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? (Mar 9, 2026)

Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Final answerResolved Mar 9, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?” resolved No on Mar 9, 2026, after $1.6M traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Next Supreme Leader of Iran? event family.

ResolvedMar 9, 2026

Volume$1.6M

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

Consensus lock into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-98.8%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics84.5%+7.0%$632.4KTrade on Polyguana →Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending in Politics2.35%0.0%$261.7KTrade on Polyguana →Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics14.7%+7.2%$224.9KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Headline and statement context

The archived market shows broad crowd agreement into settlement rather than a late information shock. $1.6M traded before settlement, so the useful context is the resolved outcome, official source path, and related market family.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

ConsensusThe market was already one-sided before settlement, so absence of a spike is part of the record.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Mar 9, 2026No settlement with $1.6M traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

March 9, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price4.25% (4.25¢)Observed

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.