How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Mar 1, 2026 on Polymarket. Event family: What price will Bitcoin hit in February?

Did the prediction market see it coming?

Yes — prediction markets priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? (Mar 1, 2026)

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February?

Final answerResolved Mar 1, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February?” resolved No on Mar 1, 2026, after $3.0M traded on Polymarket. It is part of the What price will Bitcoin hit in February? event family.

ResolvedMar 1, 2026

Volume$3.0M

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

Consensus lock into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-92.9%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending now2.35%-0.2%$1.7MTrade on Polyguana →Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending now75.5%-9.0%$1.4MTrade on Polyguana →Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending now2.05%0.0%$1.3MTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Benchmark and filing context

The archived market shows broad crowd agreement into settlement rather than a late information shock. $3.0M traded before settlement, so the useful context is the resolved outcome, official source path, and related market family.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

ConsensusThe market was already one-sided before settlement, so absence of a spike is part of the record.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Mar 1, 2026No settlement with $3.0M traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

March 1, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price0.7% (0.7¢)Observed

Continue through the resolved archive

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