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Resolved answer·Bitcoin above ___ on January 30?·#1250172

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 30?

No
Final answerResolved Jan 30, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

Outcome: No on Jan 30, 2026. Event family: Bitcoin above ___ on January 30? $807.7K traded before settlement. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 30?

ResolvedJan 30, 2026
Volume$807.7K
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 30?
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes0.05% (0.05¢)
01Section 01 of 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 39% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 39-point move.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.9%
0¢11¢22¢33¢44¢1/231/241/251/261/271/281/291/30Peak convictionSettled

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

No

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

02Section 02 of 04Context

Context

Benchmark and filing context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Jan 30, 2026No settlement with $807.7K traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

03Section 03 of 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

January 30, 2026 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price39% (39¢)Observed
04Section 04 of 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 30?
Same eventNo

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 30?

Bitcoin above ___ on January 30? · $2.1M traded · Jan 30, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: JanuaryNo

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

Fed decision in January? · $216.5M traded · Jan 28, 2026

Open resolved page
Spike signal
39 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
29 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle0.35% (0.35¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
Same entity: JanuaryNo

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

Fed decision in January? · $235.1M traded · Jan 28, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: JanuaryYes

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Fed decision in January? · $106.8M traded · Jan 28, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: JanuaryNo

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?

Fed decision in January? · $101.2M traded · Jan 28, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: BitcoinNo

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? · $375.8M traded · Jun 4, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: JanuaryNo

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?

Fed decision in January? · $57.0M traded · Jan 29, 2025

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive