How did this market resolve?

It resolved Yes on Mar 1, 2026 on Polymarket. Event family: Iran strike on US military by February 28?

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

Yes — Iran strike on US military by February 28? (Mar 1, 2026)

Iran strike on US military by February 28?

Yes

Final answerResolved Mar 1, 2026

The crowd called it — 98.45% confident in Yes just before settlement.

“Iran strike on US military by February 28?” resolved Yes on Mar 1, 2026, after $784.4K traded on Polymarket.

ResolvedMar 1, 2026

Volume$784.4K

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

No-to-Yes turn

The market sat near 6% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 94-point move.

No-to-Yes turn

Yes fell to 6% before the market settled Yes at 100%, a 94-point reversal.

Lowest Yes

6% (6¢)

Curve low

Settled Yes

100% (100¢)

Final Yes price

Swing

94 pts

Yes probability

Yes 98.5¢ALL+169.7%

Last observed Yes

98.45% (98.45¢)

Settled result

Yes

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics85.5%+3.0%$354.6KTrade on Polyguana →Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Trending in Politics7.65%+0.1%$271.9KTrade on Polyguana →Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending in Politics2.35%0.0%$175.1KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Headline and statement context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

RepricedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Mar 1, 2026Yes settlement with $784.4K traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

March 1, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price36.5% (36.5¢)Observed

Continue through the resolved archive

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