How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Mar 1, 2026 on Polymarket. Event family: Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei (Mar 1, 2026)

Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei

Final answerResolved Mar 1, 2026

The crowd called it — 96.65% confident in No just before settlement.

“Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei” resolved No on Mar 1, 2026, after $1.1M traded on Polymarket.

ResolvedMar 1, 2026

Volume$1.1M

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

Yes-to-No turn

The market sat near 75.5% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 76-point move.

Yes-to-No turn

Yes traded at 75.5% before the market settled No at 0%, a 76-point reversal.

Peak Yes

75.5% (75.5¢)

Curve peak

Settled No

0% (0¢)

Final Yes price

Swing

76 pts

Yes probability

Yes 3.4¢ALL-95.2%

Last observed Yes

3.35% (3.35¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending in Politics2.25%0.0%$273.7KTrade on Polyguana →Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics85.5%+3.0%$252.5KTrade on Polyguana →Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Trending in Politics7.55%+0.2%$248.3KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Headline and statement context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

RepricedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Mar 1, 2026No settlement with $1.1M traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

72 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

3 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

March 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price70% (70¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle75.5% (75.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle3.35% (3.35¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price3.35% (3.35¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty96.65%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score72 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive

Movement

Yes-to-No turn

The market sat near 75.5% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 76-point move.

Yes-to-No turn

Yes traded at 75.5% before the market settled No at 0%, a 76-point reversal.

Peak Yes

75.5% (75.5¢)

Curve peak

Settled No

0% (0¢)

Final Yes price

Swing

76 pts

Yes probability

Yes 3.4¢ALL-95.2%

Last observed Yes

3.35% (3.35¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Context

Headline and statement context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

RepricedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Mar 1, 2026No settlement with $1.1M traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

72 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

3 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

March 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price70% (70¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle75.5% (75.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle3.35% (3.35¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price3.35% (3.35¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty96.65%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score72 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive