How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Mar 31, 2026 on Polymarket. Event family: 2nd largest company end of March?

Did the prediction market see it coming?

Yes — prediction markets priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Official finance reference is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? (Mar 31, 2026)

Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Final answerResolved Mar 31, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?” resolved No on Mar 31, 2026, after $836.8K traded on Polymarket. It is part of the 2nd largest company end of March? event family.

ResolvedMar 31, 2026

Volume$836.8K

Archive coverageCurve + book

Movement

Consensus lock into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-66.7%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · FinanceThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?Trending in Finance14.5%+5.5%$49.4KTrade on Polyguana →Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Trending in Finance82.5%-2.0%$45.5KTrade on Polyguana →Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?Trending in Finance32%-6.0%$40.8KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Benchmark and filing context

The archived market shows broad crowd agreement into settlement rather than a late information shock. $836.8K traded before settlement, so the useful context is the resolved outcome, official source path, and related market family.

Official finance referencesource linked

Official filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.

Open filing source

Crowd state

ConsensusThe market was already one-sided before settlement, so absence of a spike is part of the record.

Public anchor

Official finance referenceOfficial filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.

Resolved

Mar 31, 2026No settlement with $836.8K traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $31.5K closing liquidity.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

March 30, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price0.15% (0.15¢)Observed

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