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Topic Page

Politics Prediction Markets

Politics markets are where search demand and headline demand usually converge first. This page helps readers move from vague election-odds searches to liquid, tradable probability markets.

Active markets

2,150

Related events

6

election oddsTrump oddsCongress control oddspolicy odds
Open full rankingsPrice discovery guideMethodology

Top live markets

Ranked by 24h volume
Politics$1.5M

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Implied probability

97%

Resolves

Mar 31, 2026

View event: Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Politics$1.3M

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability

71%

Resolves

Jun 30, 2026

View event: Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Politics$890.4K

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Implied probability

87%

Resolves

Mar 31, 2026

View event: US x Iran ceasefire by...?
Politics$773.7K

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Implied probability

85%

Resolves

Apr 30, 2026

View event: Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Politics$405.6K

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

Implied probability

87%

Resolves

Mar 31, 2026

View event: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Politics$361.1K

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability

91%

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

View event: Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Politics$320.3K

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?

Implied probability

94%

Resolves

Mar 16, 2026

View event: Elon Musk # tweets March 14 - March 16, 2026?
Politics$194.2K

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Implied probability

97%

Resolves

Mar 17, 2026

View event: Elon Musk # tweets March 10 - March 17, 2026?
Politics$172.1K

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Implied probability

74%

Resolves

Mar 17, 2026

View event: Elon Musk # tweets March 10 - March 17, 2026?
Politics$167.9K

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Implied probability

85%

Resolves

Mar 17, 2026

View event: Elon Musk # tweets March 10 - March 17, 2026?
Politics$160.8K

Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability

88%

Resolves

Apr 30, 2026

View event: Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?

Related events

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

1 linked market

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

1 linked market

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

1 linked market

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

1 linked market

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

1 linked market

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

1 linked market

Why this page matters for price discovery

  • • Use price changes to spot when breaking news materially changes consensus.
  • • Compare market probability with media narratives to find overreaction or lag.
  • • Prioritize liquid contracts before reading small, thin markets as signal.