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Topic Page

Geopolitics Prediction Markets

Geopolitics queries are usually bursty and event-driven. Stable topic pages help capture demand when sanctions, ceasefires, tariffs, and escalation odds become immediate search terms.

Active markets

1,227

Related events

6

war oddsceasefire oddstariff prediction marketssanctions probability
Open full rankingsPrice discovery guideMethodology

Top live markets

Ranked by 24h volume
Geopolitics$11.8M

Netanyahu out by March 31?

Implied probability

97%

Resolves

Mar 31, 2026

View event: Netanyahu out by...?
Geopolitics$1.5M

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Implied probability

97%

Resolves

Mar 31, 2026

View event: Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Geopolitics
$1.3M

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability

71%

Resolves

Jun 30, 2026

View event: Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Geopolitics$890.4K

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Implied probability

87%

Resolves

Mar 31, 2026

View event: US x Iran ceasefire by...?
Geopolitics$774.0K

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Implied probability

85%

Resolves

Apr 30, 2026

View event: Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Geopolitics$406.1K

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

Implied probability

87%

Resolves

Mar 31, 2026

View event: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Geopolitics$347.9K

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?

Implied probability

96%

Resolves

Mar 31, 2026

View event: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?
Geopolitics$345.3K

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability

75%

Resolves

Nov 7, 2028

View event: Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Geopolitics$318.3K

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Implied probability

88.55%

Resolves

Mar 31, 2026

View event: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?
Geopolitics$316.2K

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?

Implied probability

86%

Resolves

Mar 31, 2026

View event: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?
Geopolitics$308.6K

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability

97%

Resolves

Nov 7, 2028

View event: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Geopolitics$306.0K

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Implied probability

62%

Resolves

Mar 31, 2026

View event: Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Related events

Netanyahu out by...?

1 linked market

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

1 linked market

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

1 linked market

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

1 linked market

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

1 linked market

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

1 linked market

Why this page matters for price discovery

  • • Use clusters of related markets to measure whether risk is isolated or systemic.
  • • Short-dated contracts often react first, while longer-dated contracts show second-order pricing.
  • • Event-level pages help readers compare multiple scenarios around the same headline.