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Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting?

100% implied probability — No leads

Resolution date: April 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC

Event cluster: Fed rate cut by...?

Topic: Finance

24-hour volume: $57.3K

Total liquidity: $0

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for March 2026, currently scheduled for March 17-18. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no March meeting takes place by April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related markets from this event:

  • Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?
  • Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
  • Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
  • Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?
  • Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?

Last refreshed: March 19, 2026 at 12:27 AM UTC

Resolved archiveFinanceMarket #949493

Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting?

Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? resolved No at 100% on Polymarket. Settled Apr 7, 2026. Part of Fed rate cut by...?. $1.1M total volume traded.

Fed rate cut by...?
Open resolved archive page
Winning outcome
No
Final price
100%

100¢

Settled
Apr 7, 2026

Archived metadata only

Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? market image
Resolved on Polymarket

Outcome

No

Apr 7, 2026

Final

100¢

100%

Archive price path

Settlement moved from 0.75¢ to 0.05¢

Mar 12, 2026 to Mar 18, 2026

-0.7%
1.87¢3¢0¢

Start

0.75¢

End

0.05¢

7d Range

0.05¢ to 1.15¢

Archive overview

Outcome

No

Total volume

$1.1M

Settlement logic

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for March 2026, currently scheduled for March 17-18. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no March meeting takes place by April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Same event markets

Related contracts from the same event

Open event cluster

  • Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?

  • Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?

  • Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?

  • Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?

  • Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?

Source

Polymarket market archive

Last refreshed

March 19, 2026 at 12:27 AM UTC

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Liquidity

$0

Resolved

Apr 7, 2026