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Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be at least 5m square kilometers?
95% implied probability — No leads
Resolution date: October 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC
Event cluster: Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Topic: Weather
24-hour volume: $5
Total liquidity: $2.1K
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Last refreshed: June 28, 2026 at 8:48 PM UTC
Source
supabase-shell
Last refreshed
Jun 28, 2026, 8:48 PM UTC
State
Primary · live · primary
Ranking logic
/research/methodologyData caveat
Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision
The crowd puts No at 94.8%updated 11m agopoor book
Stable — no confidently-matched movers in 24h
Outcome book
Yes
5.2¢
No
94.8¢
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Research brief
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be at least 5m square kilometers? The lead outcome is No at 95%. No high-confidence external driver has been matched yet, so the brief leans on rules, timing, and current pricing. Resolution still depends heavily on the market rules text because no standalone canonical source URL is pinned yet. Watch next: Watch for changes around the scheduled end date because the market is currently set to resolve near 10/1/2026, 12:00:00 AM.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Watch for changes around the scheduled end date because the market is currently set to resolve near 10/1/2026, 12:00:00 AM.
Oct 1, 2026No standalone canonical resolution URL is pinned yet.