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Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?
94% implied probability — No leads
Event cluster: Oklahoma Senate Election Winner
Topic: Politics
24-hour volume: $0
Total liquidity: $1.2K
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Last refreshed: June 28, 2026 at 9:24 PM UTC
Source
supabase-shell
Last refreshed
Jun 28, 2026, 9:24 PM UTC
State
Primary · live · primary
Ranking logic
/research/methodologyData caveat
Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision
The crowd puts No at 93.5%updated 449h agopoor book
Stable — no confidently-matched movers in 24h
Outcome book
Yes
6.5¢
No
93.5¢
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Research brief
Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026? The lead outcome is No at 94%. No high-confidence external driver has been matched yet, so the brief leans on rules, timing, and current pricing. Resolution still depends heavily on the market rules text because no standalone canonical source URL is pinned yet. Watch next: Recheck the live market page for clarifications before large resolution-sensitive moves or headline-driven entries.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Recheck the live market page for clarifications before large resolution-sensitive moves or headline-driven entries.
No standalone canonical resolution URL is pinned yet.