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Will the Democrats win the Arkansas governor race in 2026?

Will the Democrats win the Arkansas governor race in 2026?

5% chance — current implied probability

Event cluster: Arkansas Governor Election Winner

Topic: Politics

24-hour volume: $0

Total liquidity: $7.3K

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Last refreshed: July 2, 2026 at 4:57 AM UTC

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PoliticsLive odds
Will the Democrats win the Arkansas governor race in 2026?

Will the Democrats win the Arkansas governor race in 2026?

5%
chanceUnlikely
▲Yes5.35¢
▼No94.65¢

Probability over time

Polling
Quiet$7.3K in the order book

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.…

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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Bet Yes5.35¢Bet No94.65¢
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Quality39/100Poor
Spread0.7%Tight
Depth ±2%$2.9KThin
FreshnessLivereal-time
24h volume$0matched
Liquidity$7.3Kbook depth