How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Jan 1, 2026 on Polymarket. Event family: Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? (Jan 1, 2026)

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?

Final answerResolved Jan 1, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.9% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?” resolved No on Jan 1, 2026, after $1.3M traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? event family.

ResolvedJan 1, 2026

Volume$1.3M

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 26% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 26-point move.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.6%

Last observed Yes

0.1% (0.1¢)

Settled result

This question is still liveThe archive shows how it settled — these markets are trading now.

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Same event94.15%-0.4%$35.8KTrade on Polyguana →Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Same event87.5%+1.0%$27.5KTrade on Polyguana →Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Same event47%-0.5%$5.3KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Headline and statement context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jan 1, 2026No settlement with $1.3M traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

26 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

3 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

January 1, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price26% (26¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle0.25% (0.25¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle0.1% (0.1¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price0.1% (0.1¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty99.9%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourceUMA oracleObservedThis market carried UMA-linked metadata, but the archive did not retain a market-specific oracle URL.Open source

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

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