How did this market resolve?

It resolved Yes on Jul 11, 2026 on Polymarket. Event family: ITF Lodz: Linus Lagerbohm vs Leyton Rivera.

Did the prediction market see it coming?

Yes — prediction markets priced Yes as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

Yes — Lagerbohm vs. Rivera: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 (Jul 11, 2026)

Lagerbohm vs. Rivera: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5

Yes

Final answerResolved Jul 11, 2026

A close one — the market was only 57.5% confident in Yes at the close.

“Lagerbohm vs. Rivera: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5” resolved Yes on Jul 11, 2026, after $100 traded on Polymarket. It is part of the ITF Lodz: Linus Lagerbohm vs Leyton Rivera event family.

ResolvedJul 11, 2026

Volume$100

Archive coverageCurve + book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market priced Yes as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 57.5¢ALL+0.0%

Yes57.5¢No42.5¢

Last observed Yes

57.5% (57.5¢)

Settled result

Yes

This question is still liveThe archive shows how it settled — these markets are trading now.

ITF Lodz: Linus Lagerbohm vs Leyton RiveraSame event99.95%—$3.0KTrade on Polyguana →Linus Lagerbohm vs. Leyton Rivera: Total Sets O/U 2.5Same event99.95%—$103Trade on Polyguana →Lagerbohm vs. Rivera: Match O/U 21.5Same event99.95%—$100Trade on Polyguana →

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jul 11, 2026Yes settlement with $100 traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $0 closing liquidity.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

$0Last archived liquidity level before settlement.

Curve

2 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 11, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price57.5% (57.5¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle57.5% (57.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle57.5% (57.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price57.5% (57.5¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty57.5%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing liquidity$0ObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourceUMA oracleObservedThis market carried UMA-linked metadata, but the archive did not retain a market-specific oracle URL.Open source

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

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