How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Jul 11, 2026 on Polymarket. Event family: Bogota: Matias Soto vs Lorenzo Claverie.

Did the prediction market see it coming?

Yes — prediction markets priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — Set Handicap: Claverie (-1.5) vs Soto (+1.5) (Jul 11, 2026)

Set Handicap: Claverie (-1.5) vs Soto (+1.5)

Final answerResolved Jul 11, 2026

The crowd called it — 79.5% confident in No just before settlement.

“Set Handicap: Claverie (-1.5) vs Soto (+1.5)” resolved No on Jul 11, 2026, after $496 traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Bogota: Matias Soto vs Lorenzo Claverie event family.

ResolvedJul 11, 2026

Volume$496

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 20.5¢ALL-8.9%

Last observed Yes

20.5% (20.5¢)

Settled result

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending now2.25%+0.1%$394.5KTrade on Polyguana →Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Trending now2.25%+0.1%$305.3KTrade on Polyguana →Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Trending now2.4%+0.1%$138.4KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jul 11, 2026No settlement with $496 traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

3 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price22.5% (22.5¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle22.5% (22.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

Last observed price20.5% (20.5¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty79.5%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score2 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourceUMA oracleObservedThis market carried UMA-linked metadata, but the archive did not retain a market-specific oracle URL.Open source

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

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