How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Jul 11, 2026 on Polymarket. Event family: Trieste: Henry Bernet vs Hugo Dellien.

Did the prediction market see it coming?

Yes — prediction markets priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — Set Handicap: Dellien (-1.5) vs Bernet (+1.5) (Jul 11, 2026)

Set Handicap: Dellien (-1.5) vs Bernet (+1.5)

Final answerResolved Jul 11, 2026

A close one — the market was only 53% confident in No at the close.

“Set Handicap: Dellien (-1.5) vs Bernet (+1.5)” resolved No on Jul 11, 2026, after $1.1K traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Trieste: Henry Bernet vs Hugo Dellien event family.

ResolvedJul 11, 2026

Volume$1.1K

Archive coverageCurve + book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 47.0¢ALL+2.2%

Yes47.0¢No53.0¢

Last observed Yes

47% (47¢)

Settled result

This question is still liveThe archive shows how it settled — these markets are trading now.

Set 1 Winner: Bernet vs DellienSame event99.95%—$269Trade on Polyguana →Bernet vs. Dellien: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Same event99.95%—$34Trade on Polyguana →Bernet vs. Dellien: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Same event99.95%—$34Trade on Polyguana →

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jul 11, 2026No settlement with $1.1K traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $0 closing liquidity.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

$0Last archived liquidity level before settlement.

Curve

3 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price46% (46¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle46% (46¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

Last observed price47% (47¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty53%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score1 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing liquidity$0ObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourceUMA oracleObservedThis market carried UMA-linked metadata, but the archive did not retain a market-specific oracle URL.Open source

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

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