How did this market resolve?

It resolved 50/50 on Jul 11, 2026 on Polymarket. Event family: ITF Lodz: Vladyslav Orlov vs Imanol Lopez Morillo.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

50/50 — ITF Lodz: Vladyslav Orlov vs Imanol Lopez Morillo (Jul 11, 2026)

ITF Lodz: Vladyslav Orlov vs Imanol Lopez Morillo

50/50

Final answerResolved Jul 11, 2026

This market settled 50/50 on Jul 11, 2026.

“ITF Lodz: Vladyslav Orlov vs Imanol Lopez Morillo” resolved 50/50 on Jul 11, 2026, after $410 traded on Polymarket.

ResolvedJul 11, 2026

Volume$410

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

A full price path was not preserved for this market, but the settlement record is firm: it resolved 50/50, with $410 traded before close.

55.5¢ALL-0.9%

Last observed Yes

55.5% (55.5¢)

Settled result

50/50

This question is still liveThe archive shows how it settled — these markets are trading now.

Orlov vs. Morillo: Match O/U 23.5Same event50%+0.5%$0Trade on Polyguana →Orlov vs. Morillo: Match O/U 21.5Same event50%+1.0%$0Trade on Polyguana →

Venues

Polymarket and Kalshi coverage

Polymarket remains the settlement source for this page. Kalshi appears here only where Vanga has a high-confidence comparable market.

Best venueMatched venue

Spread0.00 pp

Coverage2 venues

SnapshotJul 12, 2026

Imanol Lopez Morillo

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

0.00 pp

Polymarket50% (50¢)Kalshi KXITFMATCH-26JUL11ORLLOP-LOP50% (50¢)

Imanol Lopez Morillo

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

0.00 pp

Polymarket50% (50¢)Kalshi KXITFMATCH-26JUL11ORLLOP-LOP50% (50¢)

Vladyslav Orlov

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

0.00 pp

Polymarket50% (50¢)Kalshi KXITFMATCH-26JUL11ORLLOP-ORL50% (50¢)

Vladyslav Orlov

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

0.00 pp

Polymarket50% (50¢)Kalshi KXITFMATCH-26JUL11ORLLOP-ORL50% (50¢)

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jul 11, 202650/50 settlement with $410 traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Spread

1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

2 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 11, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price56% (56¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle56% (56¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

Last observed price55.5% (55.5¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty55.5%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score1 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourceUMA oracleObservedThis market carried UMA-linked metadata, but the archive did not retain a market-specific oracle URL.Open source

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

A full price path was not preserved for this market, but the settlement record is firm: it resolved 50/50, with $410 traded before close.

55.5¢ALL-0.9%

Last observed Yes

55.5% (55.5¢)

Settled result

50/50

This question is still liveThe archive shows how it settled — these markets are trading now.

Orlov vs. Morillo: Match O/U 23.5Same event50%+0.5%$0Trade on Polyguana →Orlov vs. Morillo: Match O/U 21.5Same event50%+1.0%$0Trade on Polyguana →

Venues

Polymarket and Kalshi coverage

Polymarket remains the settlement source for this page. Kalshi appears here only where Vanga has a high-confidence comparable market.

Best venueMatched venue

Spread0.00 pp

Coverage2 venues

SnapshotJul 12, 2026

Imanol Lopez Morillo

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

0.00 pp

Polymarket50% (50¢)Kalshi KXITFMATCH-26JUL11ORLLOP-LOP50% (50¢)

Imanol Lopez Morillo

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

0.00 pp

Polymarket50% (50¢)Kalshi KXITFMATCH-26JUL11ORLLOP-LOP50% (50¢)

Vladyslav Orlov

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

0.00 pp

Polymarket50% (50¢)Kalshi KXITFMATCH-26JUL11ORLLOP-ORL50% (50¢)

Vladyslav Orlov

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

0.00 pp

Polymarket50% (50¢)Kalshi KXITFMATCH-26JUL11ORLLOP-ORL50% (50¢)

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jul 11, 202650/50 settlement with $410 traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Spread

1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

2 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 11, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price56% (56¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle56% (56¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

Last observed price55.5% (55.5¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty55.5%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score1 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourceUMA oracleObservedThis market carried UMA-linked metadata, but the archive did not retain a market-specific oracle URL.Open source

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive