How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Jul 11, 2026 on Polymarket. Event family: ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Koki Matsuda.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

No — ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Koki Matsuda (Jul 11, 2026)

ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Koki Matsuda

Final answerResolved Jul 11, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Koki Matsuda” resolved No on Jul 11, 2026, after $31.1K traded on Polymarket.

ResolvedJul 11, 2026

Volume$31.1K

Archive coverageCurve + book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 56% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 56-point move.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.9%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

This question is still liveThe archive shows how it settled — these markets are trading now.

Nakagawa vs. Matsuda: Match O/U 22.5Same event99.55%+47.5%$52Trade on Polyguana →Set 1 Winner: Nakagawa vs MatsudaSame event99.55%+53.1%$45Trade on Polyguana →Nakagawa vs. Matsuda: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Same event99.55%+49.6%$25Trade on Polyguana →

Venues

Polymarket and Kalshi coverage

Polymarket remains the settlement source for this page. Kalshi appears here only where Vanga has a high-confidence comparable market.

Best venuePolymarket

Spread-99.5 pp

Coverage2 venues

SnapshotJul 12, 2026

Koki Matsuda

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-99.5 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXITFMATCH-26JUL10NAKMAT-MAT0.5% (0.5¢)

Naoki Nakagawa

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+99.5 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXITFMATCH-26JUL10NAKMAT-NAK99.5% (99.5¢)

Koki Matsuda

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-0.50 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXITFMATCH-26JUL10NAKMAT-MAT99.5% (99.5¢)

Naoki Nakagawa

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+0.50 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXITFMATCH-26JUL10NAKMAT-NAK0.5% (0.5¢)

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jul 11, 2026No settlement with $31.1K traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $108.8K closing liquidity.

Spike signal

56 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

$108.8KLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Curve

20 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 11, 2026 at 7:05 AM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price56% (56¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle56% (56¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle46% (46¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score56 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing liquidity$108.8KObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourceUMA oracleObservedThis market carried UMA-linked metadata, but the archive did not retain a market-specific oracle URL.Open source

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 56% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 56-point move.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.9%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

This question is still liveThe archive shows how it settled — these markets are trading now.

Venues

Polymarket and Kalshi coverage

Polymarket remains the settlement source for this page. Kalshi appears here only where Vanga has a high-confidence comparable market.

Best venuePolymarket

Spread-99.5 pp

Coverage2 venues

SnapshotJul 12, 2026

Koki Matsuda

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-99.5 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXITFMATCH-26JUL10NAKMAT-MAT0.5% (0.5¢)

Naoki Nakagawa

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+99.5 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXITFMATCH-26JUL10NAKMAT-NAK99.5% (99.5¢)

Koki Matsuda

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-0.50 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXITFMATCH-26JUL10NAKMAT-MAT99.5% (99.5¢)

Naoki Nakagawa

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+0.50 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXITFMATCH-26JUL10NAKMAT-NAK0.5% (0.5¢)

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jul 11, 2026No settlement with $31.1K traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $108.8K closing liquidity.

Spike signal

56 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

$108.8KLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Curve

20 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 11, 2026 at 7:05 AM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price56% (56¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle56% (56¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle46% (46¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score56 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing liquidity$108.8KObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourceUMA oracleObservedThis market carried UMA-linked metadata, but the archive did not retain a market-specific oracle URL.Open source

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive