How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on Jul 3, 2026 on Polymarket. Event family: Wimbledon WTA: Nikola Bartunkova vs Barbora Krejcikova.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

Set 1 Winner: Bartunkova vs Krejcikova — Resolved market

Set 1 Winner: Bartunkova vs Krejcikova

Final answerResolved Jul 3, 2026

A close one — the market was only 59.5% confident in No at the close.

Outcome: No on Jul 3, 2026. Event family: Wimbledon WTA: Nikola Bartunkova vs Barbora Krejcikova. $3.6K traded before settlement. Question: Set 1 Winner: Bartunkova vs Krejcikova.

ResolvedJul 3, 2026

Volume$3.6K

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 66% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 66-point move.

Yes 40.5¢ALL-38.2%

Yes40.5¢No59.5¢

Last observed Yes

40.5% (40.5¢)

Settled result

How accurate was the crowd? A close one — the market was only 59.5% confident in No at the close.

Venues

Polymarket and Kalshi coverage

Polymarket remains the settlement source for this page. Kalshi appears here only where Vanga has a high-confidence comparable market.

Best venuePolymarket

Spread-50.0 pp

Coverage2 venues

SnapshotJul 4, 2026

Bartunkova

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+50.0 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUL03BARKRE-1-BAR50% (50¢)

Bartunkova

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+50.0 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUL03BARKRE-1-BAR50% (50¢)

Krejcikova

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUL03BARKRE-1-KRE50% (50¢)

Krejcikova

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUL03BARKRE-1-KRE50% (50¢)

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jul 3, 2026No settlement with $3.6K traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

27 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

7 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price65.5% (65.5¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle39.5% (39.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

Last observed price40.5% (40.5¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty59.5%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score1 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourceUMA oracleObservedThis market carried UMA-linked metadata, but the archive did not retain a market-specific oracle URL.Open source

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 66% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 66-point move.

Yes 40.5¢ALL-38.2%

Yes40.5¢No59.5¢

Last observed Yes

40.5% (40.5¢)

Settled result

How accurate was the crowd? A close one — the market was only 59.5% confident in No at the close.

Venues

Polymarket and Kalshi coverage

Polymarket remains the settlement source for this page. Kalshi appears here only where Vanga has a high-confidence comparable market.

Best venuePolymarket

Spread-50.0 pp

Coverage2 venues

SnapshotJul 4, 2026

Bartunkova

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+50.0 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUL03BARKRE-1-BAR50% (50¢)

Bartunkova

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+50.0 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUL03BARKRE-1-BAR50% (50¢)

Krejcikova

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUL03BARKRE-1-KRE50% (50¢)

Krejcikova

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUL03BARKRE-1-KRE50% (50¢)

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jul 3, 2026No settlement with $3.6K traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

27 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

7 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price65.5% (65.5¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle39.5% (39.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

Last observed price40.5% (40.5¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty59.5%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score1 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourceUMA oracleObservedThis market carried UMA-linked metadata, but the archive did not retain a market-specific oracle URL.Open source

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive