Movement
How opinion moved into resolution
The market sat near 54.5% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 55-point move.
Last observed Yes
21% (21¢)
Settled result
No
How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 79% confident in No just before settlement.
Venues
Venues
Polymarket and Kalshi coverage
Polymarket remains the settlement source for this page. Kalshi appears here only where Vanga has a high-confidence comparable market.
Kwon
Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized
Kwon
Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized
Paul
Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized
Paul
Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized
Context
Schedule and result context
The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.
Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Open marketThe archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $0 closing liquidity.
Evidence
What the archive still preserves
This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.
Source
Supabase primary
Last refreshed
July 1, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC
State
Primary · fresh · fresh cache
Ranking logic
/research/methodologyResolution source
Polymarket settlement record
Data caveat
Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision
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