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Will Rodri join Barcelona?

Will Rodri join Barcelona?

96% implied probability — No leads

Resolution date: September 2, 2026 at 3:59 AM UTC

Event cluster: Where will Rodri transfer?

Topic: Soccer

24-hour volume: $0

Total liquidity: $45

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to the next team Rodri officially joins by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Rodri does not officially join a new team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Manchester City". If Rodri joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other". If Rodri is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". An official transfer announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Manchester City and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.

Last refreshed: June 28, 2026 at 8:49 PM UTC

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Source

supabase-shell

Last refreshed

Jun 28, 2026, 8:49 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Market read · polling·Sports

Will Rodri join Barcelona?

The crowd puts No at 96.05% · updated 10m ago · poor book

Lead probability
96.05%
No
▲ +5.5¢ 24h
28/100Poor

Probability tape

Probability over time

Polling24h +5.5%
Spread5.9%Wide
Depth ±2%$18Thin
Freshness10m agoStale
24h volume$0matched
Liquidity$45book depth
updated 10m agoresolves Sep 2, 2026methodologyBelow median for Sports markets
What moved this marketrecent signals

Stable — no confidently-matched movers in 24h

Watching resolution timing

Outcome book

Best quotes

Top 2

Yes

3.95¢

-5.5%

No

96.05¢

+5.5%
View on Polymarket

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Research brief

About this market

low confidence

Will Rodri join Barcelona? The lead outcome is No at 96%. The market has moved higher by 5.5¢ over the last 24 hours even though no high-confidence external driver has been matched yet. Resolution still depends heavily on the market rules text because no standalone canonical source URL is pinned yet. Watch next: Watch for changes around the scheduled end date because the market is currently set to resolve near 9/2/2026, 3:59:00 AM.

1 sourcesUpdated 1d ago

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the next team Rodri officially joins by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Rodri does not officially join a new team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Manchester City". If Rodri joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other". If Rodri is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". An official transfer announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Manchester City and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.

Watch next

Watch for changes around the scheduled end date because the market is currently set to resolve near 9/2/2026, 3:59:00 AM.

Sep 2, 2026

Key uncertainty

No standalone canonical resolution URL is pinned yet.

More: edge cases

Edge cases

  • If Rodri does not officially join a new team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Manchester City".
  • If Rodri joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
  • If Rodri is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".