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Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%?
98% implied probability — No leads
Resolution date: April 21, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC
Event cluster: Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Topic: Politics
24-hour volume: $89.1K
Total liquidity: $22.0K
Resolution criteria: Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/). This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”. This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Last refreshed: April 22, 2026 at 9:20 AM UTC
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%? The lead outcome is No at 98%. The market has moved higher by 11.7% over the last 24 hours even though no high-confidence external driver has been matched yet. Resolution still depends heavily on the market rules text because no standalone canonical source URL is pinned yet. Watch next: Watch for changes around the scheduled end date because the market is currently set to resolve near 4/21/2026, 12:00:00 AM.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/). This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”. This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Key uncertainty: No standalone canonical resolution URL is pinned yet.