How did this market resolve?

It resolved Yes on Mar 29, 2026 on Polymarket. Event family: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes.

What source was used to resolve it?

No external resolution source URL was stored for this market in the archived metadata. Original Polymarket market is attached as public context for interpreting the result.

Yes — Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (Mar 29, 2026)

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

Yes

Final answerResolved Mar 29, 2026

The crowd called it — 66.5% confident in Yes just before settlement.

“Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes” resolved Yes on Mar 29, 2026, after $9.6M traded on Polymarket.

ResolvedMar 29, 2026

Volume$9.6M

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 66.5% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 34-point move.

Yes 66.5¢ALL-8.3%

Last observed Yes

66.5% (66.5¢)

Settled result

Yes

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending now84.5%-5.0%$1.1MTrade on Polyguana →Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Trending now15.55%-5.7%$400.5KTrade on Polyguana →Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?Trending now91.5%+83.0%$315.2KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Public context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Mar 29, 2026Yes settlement with $9.6M traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

8 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

March 29, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price72.5% (72.5¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle72.5% (72.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle66.5% (66.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price66.5% (66.5¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty66.5%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score6 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

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