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Turkish Constitutional Referendum announced in 2026?
82% implied probability — No leads
Resolution date: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC
Event cluster: Turkish Constitutional Referendum announced in 2026?
Topic: Politics
24-hour volume: $0
Total liquidity: $4.4K
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution. Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Last refreshed: June 28, 2026 at 9:00 PM UTC
Source
supabase-shell
Last refreshed
Jun 28, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
State
Primary · live · primary
Ranking logic
/research/methodologyData caveat
Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision
The crowd puts No at 81.5%updated 7m agopoor book
Stable — no confidently-matched movers in 24h
Outcome book
Yes
18.5¢
No
81.5¢
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Research brief
Turkish Constitutional Referendum announced in 2026? The lead outcome is No at 82%. The market has moved lower by 3.5¢ over the last 24 hours even though no high-confidence external driver has been matched yet. Resolution still depends heavily on the market rules text because no standalone canonical source URL is pinned yet. Watch next: Watch for changes around the scheduled end date because the market is currently set to resolve near 12/31/2026, 12:00:00 AM.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution. Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Watch for changes around the scheduled end date because the market is currently set to resolve near 12/31/2026, 12:00:00 AM.
Dec 31, 2026No standalone canonical resolution URL is pinned yet.