2025年ニューヨーク市長民主党予備選挙でZohran Mamdaniが最も多くの第一選択票を獲得？

Yes

Final answerResolved Jul 23, 2025

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in Yes just before settlement.

“Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?” resolved Yes on Jul 23, 2025, after $1.4M traded on Polymarket. It is part of the NYC Mayor Dem Primary 1st round Winner event family.

ResolvedJul 23, 2025

Volume$1.4M

Archive coverageCurve + book

Movement

No-to-Yes turn

The market sat near 21% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 79-point move.

No-to-Yes turn

Yes fell to 21% before the market settled Yes at 100%, a 79-point reversal.

Lowest Yes

21% (21¢)

Curve low

Settled Yes

100% (100¢)

Final Yes price

Swing

79 pts

Yes probability

Yes 100.0¢ALL+376.0%

Last observed Yes

99.95% (99.95¢)

Settled result

Yes

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics84.5%+7.0%$601.1KTrade on Polyguana →Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending in Politics2.35%0.0%$262.0KTrade on Polyguana →Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Trending in Politics7.55%-0.3%$226.4KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Headline and statement context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

RepricedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jul 23, 2025Yes settlement with $1.4M traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $0 closing liquidity.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 23, 2025 at 6:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price21% (21¢)Observed

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