Hernan Casanova vs. Luis Carlos Alvarez: Total Sets O/U 2.5

Final answerResolved Jul 1, 2026

A close one — the market was only 50% confident in No at the close.

Outcome: No on Jul 1, 2026. Event family: Quito: Hernan Casanova vs Luis Carlos Alvarez. $1 traded before settlement. Question: Hernan Casanova vs. Luis Carlos Alvarez: Total Sets O/U 2.5.

ResolvedJul 1, 2026

Volume$1

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 65.5% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 66-point move.

Yes 50.0¢ALL-23.7%

Yes50.0¢No50.0¢

Last observed Yes

50% (50¢)

Settled result

How accurate was the crowd? A close one — the market was only 50% confident in No at the close.

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jul 1, 2026No settlement with $1 traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

32 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

4 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 1, 2026 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price65.5% (65.5¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle65.5% (65.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle50% (50¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price50% (50¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty50%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score16 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

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