What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of January?

Final answerResolved Jan 31, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.8% confident in No just before settlement.

Outcome: No on Jan 31, 2026. Event family: What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of January? $127.5K traded before settlement. Question: Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January?

ResolvedJan 31, 2026

Volume$127.5K

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 67% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 67-point move.

Yes 0.2¢ALL-99.7%

Yes0.2¢No99.8¢

Last observed Yes

0.2% (0.2¢)

Settled result

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 99.8% confident in No just before settlement.

Context

Benchmark and filing context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Official finance referencesource linked

Official filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.

Open filing source

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Official finance referenceOfficial filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.

Resolved

Jan 31, 2026No settlement with $127.5K traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

67 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

35 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

January 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price67% (67¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle0.25% (0.25¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

Last observed price0.2% (0.2¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty99.8%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Public contextOfficial finance referenceObservedOfficial filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.Open filing source

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