Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 4?

Yes

Final answerResolved Jul 4, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in Yes just before settlement.

Outcome: Yes on Jul 4, 2026. Event family: Highest temperature in Madrid on July 4? $13.2K traded before settlement. Question: Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 4?

ResolvedJul 4, 2026

Volume$13.2K

Archive coverageCurve + book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 44% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 56-point move.

Yes 100.0¢ALL+76.9%

Last observed Yes

99.95% (99.95¢)

Settled result

Yes

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in Yes just before settlement.

Context

Official observation context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

National Weather Servicesource linked

Official U.S. forecast and weather-observation source for weather-resolution context.

Open weather source

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

National Weather ServiceOfficial U.S. forecast and weather-observation source for weather-resolution context.

Resolved

Jul 4, 2026Yes settlement with $13.2K traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $22.3K closing liquidity.

Spike signal

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 4, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price56.5% (56.5¢)Observed

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.