Will the announcers say "Presence" during the Belgium vs Senegal FIFA World Cup Match?

Yes

Final answerResolved Jul 1, 2026

A close one — the market was only 49.5% confident in Yes at the close.

Outcome: Yes on Jul 1, 2026. Event family: What will the announcers say during Belgium vs Senegal World Cup Match? $320 traded before settlement. Question: Will the announcers say "Presence" during the Belgium vs Senegal FIFA World Cup Match?

ResolvedJul 1, 2026

Volume$320

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 37.5% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 63-point move.

Yes 49.5¢ALL-1.0%

Yes49.5¢No50.5¢

Last observed Yes

49.5% (49.5¢)

Settled result

Yes

How accurate was the crowd? A close one — the market was only 49.5% confident in Yes at the close.

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jul 1, 2026Yes settlement with $320 traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 1.8¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Spread

1.8¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

4 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 1, 2026 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price50% (50¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle50% (50¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

Last observed price49.5% (49.5¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty50.5%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score1 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread1.8¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive