Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 1?

Final answerResolved Jul 1, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.9% confident in No just before settlement.

Outcome: No on Jul 1, 2026. Event family: Highest temperature in Milan on July 1? $8.0K traded before settlement. Question: Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 1?

ResolvedJul 1, 2026

Volume$8.0K

Archive coverageCurve + book

Movement

Consensus lock into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 0.1¢ALL+0.0%

Last observed Yes

0.1% (0.1¢)

Settled result

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 99.9% confident in No just before settlement.

Context

Official observation context

The archived market shows broad crowd agreement into settlement rather than a late information shock. $8.0K traded before settlement, so the useful context is the resolved outcome, official source path, and related market family.

National Weather Servicesource linked

Official U.S. forecast and weather-observation source for weather-resolution context.

Open weather source

Crowd state

ConsensusThe market was already one-sided before settlement, so absence of a spike is part of the record.

Public anchor

National Weather ServiceOfficial U.S. forecast and weather-observation source for weather-resolution context.

Resolved

Jul 1, 2026No settlement with $8.0K traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $3.5K closing liquidity.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

$3.5KLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Curve

6 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 1, 2026 at 1:05 PM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price0.1% (0.1¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle0.1% (0.1¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

Last observed price0.1% (0.1¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty99.9%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing liquidity$3.5KObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Public contextNational Weather ServiceObservedOfficial U.S. forecast and weather-observation source for weather-resolution context.Open weather source

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive