Jessica Pegula – Madison Keys

Yes

Final answerResolved Jun 19, 2026

A close one — the market was only 53.5% confident in Yes at the close.

Outcome: Yes on Jun 19, 2026. Event family: Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys. $4.6K traded before settlement. Question: Set 2 Winner: Pegula vs Keys.

ResolvedJun 19, 2026

Volume$4.6K

Archive coverageCurve + book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market priced Yes as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 53.5¢ALL+7.0%

Yes53.5¢No46.5¢

Last observed Yes

53.5% (53.5¢)

Settled result

Yes

How accurate was the crowd? A close one — the market was only 53.5% confident in Yes at the close.

Venues

Polymarket and Kalshi coverage

Polymarket remains the settlement source for this page. Kalshi appears here only where Vanga has a high-confidence comparable market.

Best venueKalshi

Spread+50.0 pp

Coverage2 venues

SnapshotJun 20, 2026

Keys

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+50.0 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUN19PEGKEY-2-KEY50% (50¢)

Keys

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+50.0 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUN19PEGKEY-2-KEY50% (50¢)

Pegula

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUN19PEGKEY-2-PEG50% (50¢)

Pegula

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUN19PEGKEY-2-PEG50% (50¢)

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jun 19, 2026Yes settlement with $4.6K traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $0 closing liquidity.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

$0Last archived liquidity level before settlement.

Curve

3 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

June 19, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price50% (50¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle50% (50¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

Last observed price53.5% (53.5¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty53.5%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score4 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing liquidity$0ObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market priced Yes as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 53.5¢ALL+7.0%

Yes53.5¢No46.5¢

Last observed Yes

53.5% (53.5¢)

Settled result

Yes

How accurate was the crowd? A close one — the market was only 53.5% confident in Yes at the close.

Venues

Polymarket and Kalshi coverage

Polymarket remains the settlement source for this page. Kalshi appears here only where Vanga has a high-confidence comparable market.

Best venueKalshi

Spread+50.0 pp

Coverage2 venues

SnapshotJun 20, 2026

Keys

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+50.0 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUN19PEGKEY-2-KEY50% (50¢)

Keys

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+50.0 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUN19PEGKEY-2-KEY50% (50¢)

Pegula

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUN19PEGKEY-2-PEG50% (50¢)

Pegula

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUN19PEGKEY-2-PEG50% (50¢)

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jun 19, 2026Yes settlement with $4.6K traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $0 closing liquidity.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

$0Last archived liquidity level before settlement.

Curve

3 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

June 19, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price50% (50¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle50% (50¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

Last observed price53.5% (53.5¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty53.5%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score4 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing liquidity$0ObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive